Architectural Model of Backpropagation ANN for Prediction of Population-Based on Sub-Districts in Pematangsiantar City

Marseba Situmorang, Anjar Wanto, Zulaini Masruro Nasution

Abstract


A population is a group of individuals who occupy or live in a place or area that interacts with one another. Because the population has a very important role in an area, it is important to make predictions to find out how much the level of increase or descent of the population in an area, especially in Pematangsiantar. Therefore this research was conducted. This study uses population data in 8 Sub-Districts in Pematangsiantar. Data was taken from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Pematangsiantar city in 2011-2017. The method used is the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Backpropagation. These data will be processed into 2 parts namely training data and Testing data. This research will use 5 architectural models namely, 3-25-1, 3-30-1, 3-45-1, 3-54-1 and 3-68-1. From these 5 architectural models, after analysis, models 3-45-1 were chosen as the best models with epoch 553 values, MSE training 0,0001108768, MSE testing 0.0012355953 and an accuracy rate of 88%. The results of this paper are expected to be widely useful, especially for academics as further research material, especially those related to population in Pematangsiantar, because this research is still limited to discussing the level of accuracy, not prediction results.


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30645/ijistech.v3i1.39

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